A new forecast by market analysts Canalys has claimed that next year could bring much-needed relief for smartphone manufacturers. The market is expected to rebound, and consumers are projected to start acquiring new high-end models in 2024.
This year, the firm anticipates a 13% decline in the smartphone market, primarily attributable to economic uncertainty, prolonged device lifecycles, and purchasing patterns. Adding to the challenges is the increasing strength of the used smartphone market.
However, a turnaround is anticipated for the following year, as smartphone shipments in Europe (excluding Russia) are expected to increase by 7%, reaching 132 million devices in 2024. Several factors will contribute to this growth, including the initiation of a new refresh cycle and a relaxation of economic pressures.
Analyst Runar Bjørhovde from Canalys highlights that declining inflation and improved inventory levels have sowed the seeds of optimism. Demand is stabilizing, and channel inventory levels are consistently improving. Consequently, market growth is projected to make a comeback in 2024, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, Italy, Spain, and Portugal.
Bjørhovde underscores that although the high-end segment of the market is saturated with brands like Apple and Samsung, there is ample opportunity in the low-end segment, particularly for affordable phones. Samsung and a few other vendors have deprioritized the sub-$200 price range due to profitability issues.
He emphasizes, “There is demand in this segment across the region, but only two or three successful vendors can thrive, as the segment necessitates economies of scale and close collaboration with the channel.”
While the medium-term outlook appears promising, analysts still anticipate a slowdown in market growth in the long term. By 2027, market growth is expected to recover to 2022 levels, growing by a mere 2%. Bjørhovde concludes, “Ultimately, vendors demonstrating resilience in the current market environment and the ability to adapt swiftly to new regulations will establish themselves as strong, long-term partners for the channel.”
